Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f2e…d606 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$269 (-20%) realized −$266 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$233
14 days+$120
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$354
sports 12% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +40.5%
≤30d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 56% -33.3%
≤90d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 56% -33.3%
all 9 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 56% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 56% -33.3%
10% -19.7% 56% -39.7%
15% -27.5% 56% -45.5%
20% -34.6% 44% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$146 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage26d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$45 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $83 +$54 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$98 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $139 −$137 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$74 +145%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $86 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $83 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 48¢ $102 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $125 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $51 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 22d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 26d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.41 · official $147.41 (match) · 21 history records