Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f2e…7c7b other 845 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$3,609 (+6%) realized +$3,748 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate58%689W / 508L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day131.9pace
Fees−$438est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,543
other 35% +$4,971
world 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1054 -27.4% -34.3% 58% 20% -26.2%
≤30d 1197 -24.2% -31.4% 58% 23% -23.2%
≤90d 1197 -24.2% -31.4% 58% 23% -23.2%
all 1197 -24.2% -31.4% 58% 23% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 23% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.0% 18% -30.6%
15% -44.0% 14% -37.3%
20% -49.5% 10% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$54 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,780
Realized+$3,748
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses689 / 508
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$438
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1197 / 845
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day131.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 82¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ 94¢ $251 $253 +$1 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Australia 92¢ 93¢ $222 $224 +$2 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Paula Badosa 50¢ 86¢ $106 $183 +$77 (+72%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands India 95¢ 94¢ $184 $182 −$2 (-1%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 59¢ 62¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ 38¢ $97 $69 −$28 (-29%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Ugo Humbert 57¢ 97¢ $34 $58 +$24 (+69%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 74¢ 74¢ $54 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 75¢ 26¢ $125 $44 −$81 (-65%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ 76¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Pavel Kotov 86¢ 78¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-9%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 66¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Jebens/Vocel vs Hidalgo/Schoolkate Hidalgo/Schoolkate 42¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 98¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka New Zealand 73¢ 2¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 55¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Cervia: Juan Martin vs Michele Ribecai Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Ostrava: Rudolf Molleker vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kaja Juvan vs Guiomar Maristany Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Garrett Johns Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Huzhou: Yufei Ren vs Yidi Yang Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Jiujiang: Alex Bolt vs Adam Walton Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Aix en Provence: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Abidjan: Hamish Stewart vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Oeiras 3: Valentin Royer vs Joel Schwaerzler Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Centurion: Semen Pankin vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Elmer Moeller vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Leicestershire Jun 16 $385 −$385 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Valencia: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur Jun 16 $266 −$266 -100%
Istanbul: Maria Sara Popa vs Carole Monnet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $20 20m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $39 20m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $39 44m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $39 44m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $39 44m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $14 44m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $35 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $49 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $49 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $25 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $34 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 75¢ $126 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 94¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $29 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $39 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $39 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $39 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $39 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $21 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $39 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $39 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $10 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 50¢ $38 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $33 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $38 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $38 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $38 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $38 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $38 6h
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,780.14 · official $1,791.34 (match) · 3500 history records