Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6f2f…fc54 crypto 1576 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$215 (-4%) realized −$289 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%946W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$34
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$284
other 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 502 -1.6% -11.0% 83% 56% -10.9%
≤30d 921 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 50% -12.7%
≤90d 1575 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 48% -14.4%
all 1575 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 48% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 31% -22.6%
15% -31.3% 21% -30.0%
20% -38.1% 16% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses946 / 629
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1575 / 1576
History coverage74d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.42 (match) · 3500 history records