Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f33…109f crypto 24 markets active 19h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-19%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$9
crypto 47% −$32
world 4% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 28% -40.9%
≤30d 18 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 28% -40.9%
≤90d 18 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 28% -40.9%
all 18 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 28% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 28% -40.9%
10% -51.3% 22% -46.6%
15% -56.0% 17% -51.7%
20% -60.3% 17% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $8 +$9 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 41¢ $5 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 34¢ $5 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 32¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C or below on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.61 · official $45.40 (match) · 42 history records