Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f35…3b38 crypto 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3268 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$651 (-4%) realized −$610 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate11%68W / 540L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day3268.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3268 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-82.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 -80.6% -82.4% 11% 1% -23.7%
≤30d 608 -80.6% -82.4% 11% 1% -23.7%
≤90d 608 -80.6% -82.4% 11% 1% -23.7%
all 608 -80.6% -82.4% 11% 1% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3268.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.4% 1% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -84.1% 0% -31.0%
15% -85.6% 0% -37.7%
20% -87.1% 0% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$610
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses68 / 540
Open positions3
Markets (closed)608 / 117
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day3268.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 50¢ 88¢ $45 $80 +$35 (+76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 50¢ 12¢ $55 $13 −$42 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.67 · official $288.67 (match) · 3500 history records