Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f36…89ca world 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,631 (+13%) realized +$1,718 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate37%59W / 102L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days+$451
14 days+$425
30 days+$1,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$1,318
other 10% −$32
politics 3% +$284
sports 3% −$237
crypto 3% −$42
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.1% +2.3% 57% 43% +24.2%
≤30d 45 +26.2% +14.1% 47% 36% +19.3%
≤90d 107 +16.1% +5.1% 46% 34% +9.9%
all 161 +14.9% +4.0% 37% 28% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 28% +7.4%
10% -6.0% 23% -2.9%
15% -15.1% 20% -12.3%
20% -23.4% 16% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$13 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1,061
Realized+$1,718
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses59 / 102
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions37
Markets (closed)161 / 198
History coverage210d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 52¢ 60¢ $155 $182 +$27 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 78¢ $144 $157 +$13 (+9%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $153 $156 +$3 (+2%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 48¢ 66¢ $97 $133 +$36 (+37%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 59¢ 94¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+59%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $41 $33 −$8 (-19%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 45¢ 26¢ $54 $31 −$23 (-42%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+29%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 35¢ 16¢ $45 $20 −$25 (-56%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $26 $17 −$9 (-34%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $45 $12 −$33 (-73%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $57 $12 −$45 (-79%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-51%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+80%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-35%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+135%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 88¢ 24¢ $25 $7 −$19 (-73%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-27%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Pete Hegseth attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Cere Jun 17 $37 +$12 +33%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $78 +$15 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$30 +30%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $205 +$211 +103%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $44 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $109 +$45 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $73 +$104 +144%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $13 +$1 +10%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $73 +$35 +48%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +150%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 12 $50 −$6 -12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $343 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14 +$14 +97%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Jun 10 $4 +$8 +211%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $26 +$14 +54%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$2 -11%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $90 −$50 -55%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 30 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? May 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $179 +$260 +145%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 30 $14 −$3 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $207 −$123 -59%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $18 −$13 -71%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 29 $2 −$1 -53%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $356 +$507 +143%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $3 −$1 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $6 +$58 +1062%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 May 19 $1,119 −$12 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 14 $43 −$4 -9%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 May 09 $38 +$7 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 09 $12 −$1 -8%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? May 09 $4 +$7 +166%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $26 −$20 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 61¢ $67 25m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 26m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 38m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $31 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $62 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,060.63 · official $1,060.63 (match) · 2185 history records