Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f39…8ad7
other · 209 markets active 21h ago
0.0score
−$2,204 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,459 · open −$745
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,583
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized−$745
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses31 / 152
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions26
Markets (closed)183 / 209
History coverage415d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 26 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$250
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1,000 $1,147 +$147 (+15%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $1,000 $850 −$150 (-15%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $790 −$210 (-21%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $250 $418 +$168 (+67%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $500 $416 −$84 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $308 $297 −$11 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $285 $284 −$1 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $225 $233 +$8 (+4%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $275 $212 −$62 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $200 $91 −$109 (-54%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 42¢ 10¢ $250 $56 −$194 (-78%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+66%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $60 $28 −$32 (-54%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 10 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 10 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 10 $167 +$175 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 10 $210 −$202 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 10 $156 +$259 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 10 $67 +$92 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 10 $109 −$104 -96%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 10 $36 −$35 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$212 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 09 $128 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $274 −$261 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 09 $200 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 09 $234 +$282 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 09 $174 −$164 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 09 $195 +$538 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 09 $187 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 09 $146 +$44 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 09 $139 +$110 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 09 $150 −$146 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 09 $236 −$225 -95%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 08 $120 +$98 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 08 $364 +$444 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 08 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 08 $254 −$244 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 08 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $116 −$32 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 08 $196 +$576 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 08 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 08 $127 −$123 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 03 $308 +$183 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 03 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 03 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 24 $50 +$33 +67%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 30 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? Mar 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Elon register the America Party in July? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% −$169
tech 24% −$595
other 21% −$314
sports 5% −$439
finance 4% +$351
politics 4% +$79
world 3% −$523
culture 2% −$334
economics 1% −$249
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $162 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $257 21h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 10¢ $207 21h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 10¢ $259 21h
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 3¢ $105 21h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 10¢ $518 21h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 17¢ $1,033 21h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,034 21h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,028 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $37 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $34 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $62 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $9 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 85 -55.7% -59.9% 19% 18% -25.4%
all 183 -28.7% -35.5% 17% 16% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 16% -24.5%
10% -41.7% 16% -31.7%
15% -47.3% 16% -38.3%
20% -52.5% 15% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,582.62 · official $5,583.27 (match) · 579 history records