Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f3b…e7d6 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 26% −$4
politics 7% +$2
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 47 +1.4% -8.3% 36% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 2% -10.1%
10% -17.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage263d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 84¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $36 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $15 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $20 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $27 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $35 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $21 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $35 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $21 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $18 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $39 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $39 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.23 · official $34.23 (match) · 145 history records