Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f3d…a117 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$7
world 26% −$44
sports 24% +$1
economics 11% +$1
politics 6% +$10
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 83% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -4.6% -13.7% 42% 4% -12.1%
≤90d 33 -2.9% -12.1% 45% 6% -10.2%
all 71 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage278d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $3 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $138 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 +$2 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $175 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $170 −$36 -21%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $104 −$7 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $48 −$1 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $710 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $611 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $104 +$7 +7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $614 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $604 +$3 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $26 +$8 +32%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $84 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $37 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $44 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.64 · official $38.64 (match) · 339 history records