Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f40…eb64 other 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45,625 (+12%) realized +$37,993 · open +$7,632
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%108W / 160L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1,313per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$819est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$40,554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$919
7 days+$1,819
14 days+$2,551
30 days+$18,880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$7,144
world 34% +$13,382
politics 15% +$28,171
sports 11% −$1,695
finance 1% +$1,002
crypto 0% +$712
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -27.3% -34.2% 44% 36% -5.0%
≤30d 63 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 37% +14.7%
≤90d 264 +3.1% -6.8% 40% 37% -2.7%
all 268 +3.6% -6.3% 40% 38% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 38% -2.3%
10% -15.3% 34% -11.7%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 31% -20.2%
20% -31.0% 26% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,027) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,116 vs −$586 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$40,554
Realized+$37,993
Unrealized+$7,632
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses108 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$819
Open positions19
Markets (closed)268 / 288
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$1,313
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 41¢ 86¢ $4,802 $10,056 +$5,254 (+109%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 99¢ $4,914 $7,827 +$2,913 (+59%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6,150 $7,018 +$868 (+14%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5,400 $5,475 +$75 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4,000 $3,793 −$207 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $4,000 $3,068 −$932 (-23%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $944 $780 −$164 (-17%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 64¢ $600 $662 +$62 (+10%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 67¢ 42¢ $1,000 $634 −$366 (-37%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? No 94¢ 99¢ $484 $508 +$24 (+5%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 44¢ 48¢ $223 $239 +$16 (+7%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+7%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 52¢ 52¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 36¢ $72 $86 +$14 (+20%)
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $29 $63 +$33 (+114%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 44¢ $21 $38 +$17 (+78%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 9¢ 98¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+988%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $205 −$200 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $714 −$700 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,023 +$1,053 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $358 +$892 +250%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,024 +$8 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $15,537 +$4,964 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,011 −$350 -35%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,020 +$680 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,027 +$16 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $939 +$376 +40%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $291 −$287 -99%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $2,023 +$1,203 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $226 −$220 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $512 +$1,761 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $124 −$81 -65%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $206 +$204 +99%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $205 +$2,017 +982%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $205 +$665 +325%
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $62 −$28 -46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 08 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $5,469 +$18,814 +344%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $509 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $753 +$854 +113%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 31 $205 −$146 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $1,010 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 19h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $1,013 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $510 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 22h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $63 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $3,077 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 30h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 73¢ $1,008 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $358 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,554.19 · official $40,554.18 (match) · 3500 history records