Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f43…e4ae other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-14%) realized −$124 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$244
sports 18% +$18
world 4% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.9% -35.7% 22% 11% -27.9%
≤30d 9 -28.9% -35.7% 22% 11% -27.9%
≤90d 9 -28.9% -35.7% 22% 11% -27.9%
all 9 -28.9% -35.7% 22% 11% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 11% -27.9%
10% -41.8% 11% -34.8%
15% -47.5% 11% -41.1%
20% -52.6% 11% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$54 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $200 $132 −$68 (-34%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $48 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $556 −$24 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 +$161 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $532 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $556 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $43 44h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $103 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $47 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.36 · official $226.36 (match) · 15 history records