Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f44…ecfc
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17,137 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,921 · open +$4,037
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$13,630
Realized−$20,921
Unrealized+$4,037
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions57
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage39d
Avg bet$3,407
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 57 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$13,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ $173 $1,374 +$1,201 (+693%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 27¢ $173 $1,200 +$1,027 (+593%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ $173 $923 +$750 (+433%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ $172 $829 +$657 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ $173 $788 +$615 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ $172 $784 +$612 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ $173 $743 +$570 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ $173 $723 +$550 (+317%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 16¢ $172 $695 +$522 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ $173 $563 +$390 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ $172 $515 +$343 (+199%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ $173 $464 +$291 (+168%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ $173 $428 +$255 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ $173 $428 +$255 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $173 $394 +$221 (+128%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $381 +$209 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $311 +$139 (+81%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $248 +$74 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $246 +$74 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $216 +$43 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $199 +$27 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $164 −$9 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $142 −$31 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $173 $137 −$36 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $96 −$77 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 23 $3,180 −$3,180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $3,335 −$3,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $3,335 −$3,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $3,335 −$3,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 06 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$16,884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 8h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 8h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,477 17h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $4 25h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 30h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 33h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $4 33h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,500 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,630.07 · official $13,630.97 (match) · 440 history records