Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f45…db24 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$104 (-16%) realized −$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$10
other 14% −$67
politics 7% −$43
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -34.6% -40.9% 38% 31% -25.3%
≤30d 13 -34.6% -40.9% 38% 31% -25.3%
≤90d 13 -34.6% -40.9% 38% 31% -25.3%
all 15 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 27% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 27% -34.7%
10% -53.6% 27% -40.9%
15% -58.1% 27% -46.7%
20% -62.2% 20% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage117d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $67 −$3 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $43 −$43 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $112 +$73 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 −$28 -84%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Will JD Vance clap between 80–89 times during the State of the Union? Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Barron Trump attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $49 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $64 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $11 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $67 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06 SELL 1¢ $0 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06 BUY 24¢ $10 5h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $19 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $32 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: B BUY 7¢ $5 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $6 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $4 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 25h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 39¢ $51 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $15 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.68 · official $110.68 (match) · 43 history records