Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6f46…2cd1 other 469 markets active 1h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,143 (-1%) realized −$1,227 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate62%273W / 170L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$4,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$332
7 days−$290
14 days−$403
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$3,165
politics 27% +$2,163
world 20% −$306
culture 7% −$83
tech 5% −$74
economics 3% −$304
weather 2% −$83
crypto 1% −$27
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 36% -14.0%
≤30d 27 -21.1% -28.6% 44% 33% -15.4%
≤90d 73 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 30% -3.4%
all 443 -14.2% -22.4% 62% 21% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 21% -11.4%
10% -29.8% 12% -19.9%
15% -36.6% 8% -27.6%
20% -42.8% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$52 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$4,865
Realized−$1,227
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses273 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)443 / 469
History coverage578d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,714 $1,879 +$166 (+10%)
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 86¢ 90¢ $651 $681 +$31 (+5%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 87¢ 96¢ $533 $583 +$50 (+9%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $400 $387 −$13 (-3%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $280 $289 +$8 (+3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 88¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $146 $131 −$15 (-10%)
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? Yes 82¢ 70¢ $149 $128 −$21 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $109 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? No 80¢ 94¢ $90 $105 +$15 (+17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 86¢ $59 $74 +$14 (+24%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-4%)
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+16%)
Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $31 $39 +$7 (+24%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 24¢ 7¢ $119 $36 −$83 (-70%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 74¢ 48¢ $53 $35 −$19 (-35%)
Will Trump nationalize elections? No 74¢ 86¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will "Supergirl" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 65¢ 51¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $41 $14 −$27 (-65%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will "Supergirl" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 35¢ 13¢ $10 $4 −$7 (-63%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 29¢ 3¢ $34 $4 −$30 (-89%)
Will Jaafar Jackson be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No 67¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $71 −$42 -58%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 22 $80 +$12 +15%
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect Jun 22 $26 −$1 -3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,262 +$148 +12%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 21 $501 +$11 +2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $288 −$97 -34%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,150 −$364 -32%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $26 −$16 -60%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 20 $558 −$11 -2%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $167 +$19 +12%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $401 +$99 +25%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership Jun 18 $478 −$161 -34%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 18 $817 +$80 +10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Jun 11 $23 −$19 -81%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an Jun 11 $52 −$36 -70%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an Jun 11 $34 −$32 -96%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% Jun 11 $10 −$8 -87%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 02 $479 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? Jun 01 $208 −$208 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $341 +$124 +36%
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? May 29 $227 +$34 +15%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $964 −$141 -15%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $414 −$17 -4%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 23 $143 −$143 -100%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 21 $1,908 +$1,628 +85%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $834 +$17 +2%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? May 15 $206 −$4 -2%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 15 $172 −$20 -12%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $284 +$10 +4%
Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31? May 14 $52 +$14 +26%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? May 14 $849 −$38 -4%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 14 $138 +$4 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 13 $634 −$79 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $80 +$248 +310%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 11 $85 +$3 +4%
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? May 11 $56 +$7 +13%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 09 $306 +$13 +4%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 May 08 $36 +$4 +11%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 04 $30 −$14 -47%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 03 $24 +$60 +253%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 02 $207 +$5 +2%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 30 $115 +$24 +21%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 29 $48 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $109 +$19 +18%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $94 +$4 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $96 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $400 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $30 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 26¢ $49 1h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 22¢ $0 4h
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards BUY Yes 71¢ $8 12h
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY No 95¢ $143 30h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 5¢ $41 30h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $13 30h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $85 30h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 7¢ $4 47h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 8¢ $4 2d
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 88¢ $115 2d
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 87¢ $26 2d
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 87¢ $7 2d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 2d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 90¢ $86 2d
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 90¢ $18 2d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect BUY Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 2d
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 89¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,865.08 · official $4,846.93 (match) · 2500 history records