Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f47…34a0 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 18% $0
politics 16% +$1
sports 14% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 48 -0.5% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage290d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $79 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +5%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $12 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $27 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $42 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $42 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records