Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6f48…8275 sports 351 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-2%) realized −$165 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%172W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$138
14 days−$187
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$211
other 19% +$33
crypto 1% +$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 47% -14.2%
≤30d 172 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 46% -13.4%
≤90d 320 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 49% -11.9%
all 345 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 49% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 49% -12.1%
10% -23.8% 47% -20.5%
15% -31.2% 41% -28.2%
20% -37.9% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses172 / 173
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions6
Markets (closed)345 / 351
History coverage198d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 100¢ $0 $26 +$26 (+0%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$14 +134%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $40 −$20 -48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -72%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$23 +56%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$30 +116%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 +$5 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $20 +$8 +40%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $20 +$7 +36%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $40 −$24 -61%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $10 +$9 +92%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$8 -42%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$7 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 +$12 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $18 +$11 +62%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots Jun 20 $31 +$11 +34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 +$21 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$18 +48%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 2h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $19 2h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $20 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $20 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 2h
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $20 3h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 33¢ $21 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $10 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $10 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $5 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $10 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $19 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.44 · official $103.44 (match) · 680 history records