Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f49…2ca8
politics · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage271d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $24 −$5 -22%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 24 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 26% −$5
other 21% $0
world 16% $0
sports 16% +$1
finance 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 17h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $25 200d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 200d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $25 200d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 200d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $25 201d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 205d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 205d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 262d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 89¢ $12 262d
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $10 262d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 262d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 262d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 262d
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 262d
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 262d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 262d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 262d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 262d
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 262d
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 262d
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 262d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 0% -8.9%
all 35 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records