Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f51…2647 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$1,084 (-13%) realized −$1,334 · open +$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$3,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,615
other 32% +$373
crypto 10% +$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.1% +20.4% 50% 50% -52.6%
≤30d 5 +39.4% +26.1% 60% 60% -31.8%
≤90d 5 +39.4% +26.1% 60% 60% -31.8%
all 5 +39.4% +26.1% 60% 60% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 60% -31.8%
10% +14.0% 60% -38.4%
15% +3.0% 60% -44.3%
20% -7.1% 40% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$1,120 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3,069
Realized−$1,334
Unrealized+$250
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$682
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $800 $1,110 +$310 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $810 $988 +$178 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $700 $466 −$234 (-34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $315 $337 +$22 (+7%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $86 +$214 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $547 +$217 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,128 −$1,210 -57%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,562 −$1,030 -66%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $972 +$627 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $764 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $298 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $249 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 24¢ $528 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 85¢ $238 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $1,460 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $195 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $195 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $430 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $508 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $503 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $527 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $527 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $1,598 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $304 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $607 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $61 7d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 9d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 9d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 9d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 9d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,068.79 · official $3,068.79 (match) · 76 history records