Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6F 0x6f53…8910 crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$260 (+1%) realized +$265 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate67%45W / 22L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$36
14 days+$103
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$177
crypto 24% +$87
economics 16% +$23
world 12% +$127
other 5% −$47
finance 1% −$43
sports 1% −$85
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 25% -2.4%
≤30d 30 +4.5% -5.5% 83% 20% -7.6%
≤90d 53 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 19% -8.0%
all 67 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 18% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 18% -8.7%
10% -21.7% 10% -17.5%
15% -29.3% 7% -25.4%
20% -36.2% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$3,487
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses45 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions22
Markets (closed)67 / 89
History coverage150d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $590 $585 −$5 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $582 $579 −$3 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $500 $460 −$40 (-8%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $369 $363 −$6 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 80¢ $243 $242 −$2 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 56¢ 60¢ $180 $191 +$11 (+6%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $175 $175 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $137 $143 +$6 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $102 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.36 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 100¢ $28 $40 +$12 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $24 $26 +$3 (+11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 22 $201 +$15 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $196 −$3 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$24 +47%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $1,262 +$36 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $216 +$52 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $145 −$79 -54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $247 +$41 +17%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $330 +$5 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $801 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $191 +$13 +7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $382 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 07 $187 −$31 -16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $210 −$22 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,775 +$10 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $110 +$4 +4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 03 $252 +$15 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 03 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $297 +$5 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $300 +$8 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 03 $391 +$11 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 27 $234 +$73 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 26 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 26 $31 +$39 +124%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $212 −$64 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 10 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 10 $1,052 +$30 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 May 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 04 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 04 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? May 02 $300 −$25 -8%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $30 +$30 +101%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Apr 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 25 $800 +$36 +4%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Apr 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 18 $316 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $652 +$85 +13%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 05 $1,994 +$75 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 05 $2,562 −$1 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March? Apr 01 $140 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.36 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 99¢ $166 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $23 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $28 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $216 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $193 2h
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $164 15h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $183 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $372 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 4d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $403 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $196 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 4d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $243 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $401 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $66 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $209 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,486.57 · official $3,486.57 (match) · 503 history records