Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6f55…0b63 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-0%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 36% −$14
sports 6% −$64
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -5.5% -14.5% 2% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -3.7% -12.8% 7% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage120d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $277 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $205 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $224 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $323 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $416 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $455 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 26 $176 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 27h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 10d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $21 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.97 · official $60.97 (match) · 417 history records