Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f59…c2f7 crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$954 · open −$956
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 36% -10.2%
≤30d 28 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 36% -10.2%
≤90d 28 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 36% -10.2%
all 55 -29.5% -36.2% 29% 29% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 29% -26.6%
10% -42.3% 27% -33.6%
15% -47.9% 27% -40.0%
20% -53.0% 27% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$954
Unrealized−$956
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage114d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 56¢ 4¢ $700 $44 −$656 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$65 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$37 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$45 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$43 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$132 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$60 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$41 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$48 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$78 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4AM ET Feb 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 25 $41 +$35 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Feb 25 $13 +$37 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 25 $11 +$8 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $721 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $75 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $75 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $38 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $170 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $79 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $19 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $19 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.74 · official $544.06 · 94 history records