Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6F 0x6f5a…acd1 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$62 (-35%) realized −$62 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%8W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days−$6

14 days−$6

30 days−$49

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-24.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-14.8%	-22.9%	36%	36%	-20.1%
≤30d	20	-12.4%	-20.7%	35%	35%	-40.7%
≤90d	23	-16.6%	-24.5%	35%	35%	-44.2%
all	23	-16.6%	-24.5%	35%	35%	-44.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.5%	35%	-44.2%
10%	-31.7%	30%	-49.6%
15%	-38.3%	30%	-54.4%
20%	-44.4%	30%	-58.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -21% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$62

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses8 / 15

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage52d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	34¢	34¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$6	+$4	+58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$4	-72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$4	+$9	+226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$3	+$3	+109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$4	-85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$3	−$3	-99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	May 30	$18	+$3	+18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$58	−$39	-67%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24?	May 23	$4	−$4	-98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?	May 23	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21?	May 22	$2	+$7	+388%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	May 21	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	May 21	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?	May 19	$4	+$5	+109%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	May 19	$4	−$4	-99%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-26?	Apr 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 26	$8	−$8	-100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 25	$6	+$4	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$3	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$10	10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	62¢	$6	10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	13¢	$1	10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$5	18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	19h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$4	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	9¢	$1	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	56¢	$5	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$3	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$3	3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	69¢	$22	16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	58¢	$18	16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	SELL Yes	30¢	$18	16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	40¢	$25	17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	40¢	$17	17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	42¢	$17	18d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24?	BUY Yes	50¢	$4	24d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	24d
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	26d
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	BUY Yes	40¢	$3	26d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	BUY Yes	33¢	$4	26d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$4	27d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$4	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $2.96 (match) · 38 history records