Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6F 0x6f5c…9353 sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,116 (+16%) realized +$11,879 · open −$1,763
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 50L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$651per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$629est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$9,419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$5,017
other 37% −$1,930
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% +2.6%
≤30d 94 -1.1% -10.5% 47% 47% -1.1%
≤90d 94 -1.1% -10.5% 47% 47% -1.1%
all 94 -1.1% -10.5% 47% 47% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 47% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 47% -10.6%
15% -26.9% 47% -19.2%
20% -34.1% 44% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$710) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$623 vs −$451 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$9,419
Realized+$11,879
Unrealized−$1,763
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$629
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage24d
Avg bet$651
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9,137 $6,800 −$2,337 (-26%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 89¢ $940 $1,609 +$669 (+71%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $648 $639 −$9 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $457 $371 −$86 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $391 −$391 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $641 −$641 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $355 −$355 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $697 −$697 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $401 −$401 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $823 +$1,019 +124%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,062 +$810 +76%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,774 +$795 +45%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $923 −$923 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 25 $129 −$129 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1,098 +$1,294 +118%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $889 −$889 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $357 +$543 +152%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $564 +$336 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $970 −$970 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $844 +$656 +78%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $641 −$641 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $825 +$675 +82%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $840 +$660 +79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $985 +$515 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $878 +$822 +94%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $821 +$679 +83%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $735 −$691 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $282 −$234 -83%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $259 +$241 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $627 +$373 +60%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $367 +$633 +172%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $611 −$611 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $537 −$537 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $681 +$814 +120%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $565 +$935 +165%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $687 −$687 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,015 +$485 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $226 −$226 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $641 −$641 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $636 +$564 +89%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $701 −$701 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $567 +$433 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $591 +$450 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $806 +$694 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $681 +$519 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $355 −$355 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,234 +$649 +53%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $738 +$342 +46%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $765 +$735 +96%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $447 −$447 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $660 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $391 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $953 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $738 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $2 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $51 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $101 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $30 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $92 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $47 15h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $16 18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $45 19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $7 20h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $8 21h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $4 21h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $49 21h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $385 22h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $37 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $506 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $125 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $355 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $339 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $467 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 31¢ $401 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $697 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,062 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 6¢ $129 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,419.21 · official $9,446.33 (match) · 440 history records