Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f5e…71a5 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-15%) realized −$93 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%21W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$63
14 days−$52
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$68
other 26% −$40
crypto 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.7% -14.7% 9% 9% -58.3%
≤30d 44 -4.5% -13.6% 18% 16% -26.7%
≤90d 97 -6.4% -15.3% 22% 21% -32.9%
all 97 -6.4% -15.3% 22% 21% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 21% -32.9%
10% -23.4% 19% -39.3%
15% -30.8% 19% -45.2%
20% -37.6% 18% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses21 / 76
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions16
Markets (closed)97 / 113
History coverage79d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 +$18 +596%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -77%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +442%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $19 −$12 -61%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $10 +$12 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2 $0 -5%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1 $0 -19%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$11 +206%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 14 $11 −$9 -85%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $2 +$6 +315%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? May 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 10 $21 −$13 -64%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.70 · official $28.70 (match) · 264 history records