Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f62…eb24 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$109 (-24%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$36
other 25% −$18
sports 7% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.8% -45.5% 23% 23% -22.9%
≤30d 13 -39.8% -45.5% 23% 23% -22.9%
≤90d 13 -39.8% -45.5% 23% 23% -22.9%
all 13 -39.8% -45.5% 23% 23% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 23% -22.9%
10% -50.7% 23% -30.3%
15% -55.5% 23% -37.0%
20% -59.9% 23% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$19 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $75 +$64 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$10 -14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$44 +77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 89¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 46¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $51 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 40¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $10 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 26¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $100 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records