Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f65…ae86 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day148.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 42% -5.2%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 42% -5.2%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 42% -5.2%
all 12 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 42% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 42% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 25% -14.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -22.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day148.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records