Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f67…102c other 745 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (642 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79,721 (-261%) realized −$71,742 · open −$7,979
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%187W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day642.2pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$12,515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$6,859
world 9% −$274
weather 9% −$566
tech 7% −$402
sports 7% −$156
politics 4% −$124
finance 3% −$242
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$12
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (642 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 550 +8.3% -2.0% 34% 6% -12.6%
≤30d 550 +8.3% -2.0% 34% 6% -12.6%
≤90d 550 +8.3% -2.0% 34% 6% -12.6%
all 550 +8.3% -2.0% 34% 6% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover642.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 6% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -20.9%
15% -19.9% 3% -28.6%
20% -27.8% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12,515
Realized−$71,742
Unrealized−$7,979
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses187 / 363
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions498
Markets (closed)550 / 745
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day642.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 498 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $91 $217 +$126 (+138%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $130 $126 −$4 (-3%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 94¢ 83¢ $130 $115 −$15 (-12%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $99 $109 +$10 (+10%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $130 $109 −$21 (-16%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 50¢ 43¢ $127 $109 −$18 (-14%)
Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 92¢ 94¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $92 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $103 $95 −$8 (-8%)
Will Bill Hagerty be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? No 98¢ 100¢ $92 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 50¢ 46¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $130 $89 −$41 (-31%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $129 $89 −$40 (-31%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 45¢ 44¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? OpenAI 12¢ 11¢ $96 $88 −$7 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? No 50¢ 47¢ $94 $88 −$6 (-6%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 42¢ 37¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 44¢ 38¢ $100 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-03 House seat? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $94 $86 −$8 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 44¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No 73¢ 62¢ $100 $85 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $130 −$3 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $88 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $101 −$18 -18%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$12 -23%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 15 $92 −$3 -3%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $210 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -43%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $103 −$23 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $235 −$14 -6%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $97 −$72 -74%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $102 −$83 -81%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $130 −$17 -13%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $26 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 14 $66 +$3 +4%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 12m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 12m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 12m
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 12m
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $0 22m
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $5 24m
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 25m
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 42m
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 55¢ $3 56m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 58¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $4 1h
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? SELL No 89¢ $30 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 22¢ $1 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 1h
Will Désiré Doué be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 15¢ $2 1h
Will Désiré Doué be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 15¢ $2 1h
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $7 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,515.22 · official $12,541.00 (match) · 3500 history records