Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f68…693a world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$4
other 24% −$6
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% +$3
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 46% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 46% 0% -8.7%
all 39 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage476d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $36 +$1 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $70 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $19 −$9 -44%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $15 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $4 $0 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 21 $15 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 88¢ $13 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 88¢ $38 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $48 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.85 · official $46.85 (match) · 138 history records