Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f69…4185 other 52 markets active 13d ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$57 (-14%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$76
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$143
crypto 15% −$11
sports 14% +$98
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 +68.6% +52.5% 19% 19% -11.8%
≤90d 16 +68.6% +52.5% 19% 19% -11.8%
all 52 -11.6% -20.0% 21% 17% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 17% -22.0%
10% -27.7% 17% -29.5%
15% -34.7% 12% -36.3%
20% -41.1% 12% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage215d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -42%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +246%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$73 +1768%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $1 $0 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 19? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in November 2025? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Rockets Nov 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 16? Nov 16 $45 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 16 $5 +$5 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $2 +$2 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 15 $5 +$7 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $25 −$9 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 74¢ $58 12d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 12d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 13d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 13d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 13d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 14d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL Yes 9¢ $1 206d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 SELL No 94¢ $3 209d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 96¢ $3 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records