Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f6a…9888 sports 1056 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,976 (+2%) realized +$1,968 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%567W / 487L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Fees−$1,322est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 46% -9.6%
≤30d 628 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 53% -13.2%
≤90d 1054 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 51% -9.9%
all 1054 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 51% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 50% -18.5%
15% -25.0% 49% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 44% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$86 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$1,968
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses567 / 487
Est. fees paid−$1,322
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1054 / 1056
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1054 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ 66¢ $74 $87 +$13 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 76¢ 72¢ $81 $77 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $84 −$83 -99%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $72 +$46 +65%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $72 +$60 +83%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $127 +$118 +93%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $83 +$38 +46%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $107 +$88 +82%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $197 +$142 +72%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $73 −$73 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $211 +$154 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $147 +$143 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $208 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $244 +$175 +72%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $156 +$105 +67%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $211 +$186 +88%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $84 +$76 +90%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $78 +$44 +57%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $230 −$227 -99%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $88 −$87 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $85 +$57 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $92 +$66 +72%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $49 +$22 +46%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $102 −$100 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $30 +$22 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $99 +$93 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $22 +$13 +58%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $115 +$2 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $22 +$13 +57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $30 +$33 +110%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $127 +$100 +79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $143 −$141 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $88 −$87 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 76¢ $82 23m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $75 1h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 58¢ $84 1h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Viola Turini 25¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 60¢ $78 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 61¢ $22 3h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 53¢ $75 4h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 59¢ $32 4h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 68¢ $83 6h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 51¢ $127 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 54¢ $72 7h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 49¢ $12 7h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 43¢ $12 7h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 39¢ $4 7h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $72 7h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 29¢ $13 8h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 47¢ $11 8h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Iva Ivanova 30¢ $2 12h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 98¢ $32 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $69 17h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 55¢ $28 25h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 56¢ $43 25h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 58¢ $49 25h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 59¢ $77 25h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning BUY Loes Ebeling Koning 38¢ $2 27h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 66¢ $73 28h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 40¢ $13 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $78 41h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 57¢ $35 42h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $30 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.39 · official $368.35 · 3500 history records