Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6F 0x6f6e…31a8 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+11%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$4
sports 27% +$28
other 19% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +47.6% +33.6% 56% 44% +0.3%
≤30d 9 +47.6% +33.6% 56% 44% +0.3%
≤90d 9 +47.6% +33.6% 56% 44% +0.3%
all 14 +38.4% +25.2% 71% 50% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.2% 50% +1.5%
10% +13.2% 36% -8.3%
15% +2.3% 29% -17.1%
20% -7.8% 14% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage231d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $150 +$4 +3%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 +$13 +35%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$10 -72%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +563%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$17 +137%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$6 -53%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 28 $16 +$2 +10%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $7 +$1 +16%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $11 +$4 +38%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $6 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $3 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $12 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $10 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 6d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 143d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 143d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 40¢ $3 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 42¢ $3 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 73¢ $15 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 53¢ $11 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 60¢ $6 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 58¢ $6 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 50¢ $5 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $4 224d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 28¢ $1 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records