Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6F 0x6f6e…2eca sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$832 (+17%) realized +$1,400 · open −$568
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$803
other 13% −$582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.8% +8.4% 58% 58% +8.7%
≤30d 19 +19.8% +8.4% 58% 58% +8.7%
≤90d 19 +19.8% +8.4% 58% 58% +8.7%
all 19 +19.8% +8.4% 58% 58% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 58% +8.7%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 58% -1.7%
15% -11.5% 58% -11.2%
20% -20.2% 58% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$198 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$1,400
Unrealized−$568
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 1¢ $280 $10 −$270 (-96%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $305 +$390 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +72%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $568 −$560 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 +$329 +130%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +91%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $276 +$347 +126%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $334 +$233 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $325 −$320 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$49 +68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$136 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $272 +$433 +159%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 +$16 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $406 +$409 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 −$105 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $254 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $695 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 14¢ $10 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 14¢ $51 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 12¢ $10 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 12¢ $185 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $584 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $203 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $30 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $622 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $153 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $21 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.37 · official $262.37 · 55 history records