Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f70…d9e5 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,080 (-25%) realized −$728 · open −$352
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$91
other 18% −$448
crypto 14% −$267
sports 14% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -65.3% -68.6% 0% 0% -68.6%
≤30d 24 -28.8% -35.6% 25% 21% -56.0%
≤90d 28 -30.2% -36.9% 21% 18% -32.4%
all 28 -30.2% -36.9% 21% 18% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 18% -32.4%
10% -42.9% 14% -38.9%
15% -48.4% 11% -44.8%
20% -53.5% 11% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$39 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$728
Unrealized−$352
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage172d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $525 $176 −$349 (-66%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $146 −$95 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$12 +112%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $111 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $79 −$35 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$57 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 03 $56 $0 -1%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $599 −$274 -46%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 11 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 11 $123 −$5 -4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $1,439 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 11¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $14 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $13 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.37 · official $222.37 (match) · 130 history records