Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6F 0x6f71…0b61 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate71%10W / 4L

Drawdown40%max

Avg bet$624per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-10.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	-20.0%	-27.6%	75%	0%	-49.7%
≤90d	7	-8.6%	-17.3%	86%	14%	-9.6%
all	14	-1.1%	-10.5%	71%	14%	-9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.5%	14%	-9.0%
10%	-19.1%	7%	-17.7%
15%	-26.9%	7%	-25.7%
20%	-34.1%	7%	-32.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized+$48

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses10 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage91d

Avg bet$624

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown40%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	No	90¢	90¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?	No	94¢	100¢	$17	$18	+$1 (+6%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	No	91¢	70¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
FC Hermannstadt vs. FCSB: O/U 5.5	Jun 06	$2	$0	+3%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 5.5	Jun 06	$16	+$1	+8%
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor: O/U 5.5	May 18	$18	+$1	+8%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5	May 18	$33	−$33	-100%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the	Mar 18	$1,417	+$2	+0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of t	Mar 18	$106	+$21	+20%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	Mar 18	$2,961	+$2	+0%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Mar 18	$23	−$1	-4%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	Mar 18	$114	−$17	-15%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026?	Mar 18	$1,430	+$6	+0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Mar 18	$1,415	+$1	+0%
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral elec	Mar 18	$1,431	$0	+0%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 18	$14	+$1	+9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 17?	Mar 18	$127	+$68	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	90¢	$20	1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY No	94¢	$17	9d
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	92¢	$16	16d
FC Hermannstadt vs. FCSB: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	97¢	$2	29d
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	92¢	$18	37d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$1,458	89d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$1,464	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the	SELL No	91¢	$1,418	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the	BUY No	91¢	$1,417	89d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of t	SELL Yes	6¢	$128	89d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of t	BUY Yes	5¢	$106	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	SELL No	96¢	$293	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	SELL No	96¢	$293	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	SELL No	96¢	$480	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	SELL No	96¢	$387	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	BUY No	96¢	$602	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	BUY No	96¢	$293	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	BUY No	96¢	$77	89d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	BUY No	96¢	$480	89d
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	SELL Yes	5¢	$22	90d
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	90d
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	90d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	SELL No	96¢	$241	90d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	SELL No	96¢	$1,269	90d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e	BUY No	96¢	$1,510	90d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	SELL Yes	5¢	$67	90d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	SELL Yes	5¢	$2	90d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	BUY Yes	6¢	$81	90d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026?	SELL No	98¢	$1,436	90d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026?	BUY No	98¢	$1,430	90d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.38 · official $38.38 (match) · 47 history records