Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f72…23cc other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-9%) realized −$187 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$165
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$47
sports 28% −$114
other 23% −$51
crypto 2% +$5
politics 2% +$5
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.3% -22.4% 11% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 17 -19.4% -27.1% 12% 6% -24.5%
≤90d 43 -8.6% -17.3% 47% 23% -18.6%
all 43 -8.6% -17.3% 47% 23% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 23% -18.6%
10% -25.2% 9% -26.3%
15% -32.4% 7% -33.5%
20% -39.0% 5% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage74d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -66%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $196 −$6 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $12 −$3 -23%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $104 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $160 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $126 −$10 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $124 −$124 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $188 −$12 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $24 +$5 +20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 06 $28 +$2 +8%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $25 +$5 +18%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$9 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 02 $202 −$6 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 02 $4 $0 -10%
Shymkent 2: Edas Butvilas vs Gerard Campana Lee May 02 $20 +$1 +5%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 02 $50 +$9 +18%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Apr 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $50 +$11 +21%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Apr 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 22 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Apr 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Apr 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Fujian Sturgeons Apr 22 $40 +$2 +6%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $20 $0 -1%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Apr 07 $70 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $39 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 60¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 61¢ $2 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 12¢ $10 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $174 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $175 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? SELL Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY Yes $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $6 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $127 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes $10 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes $12 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $63 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $196 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.48 · official $50.50 (match) · 159 history records