Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f73…8d13 crypto 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,960 (-3%) realized −$3,954 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%74W / 93L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$887per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$501
7 days+$501
14 days+$501
30 days−$44,654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$10,824
politics 13% +$10,964
crypto 11% −$769
other 7% −$3,220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.3% +1.6% 52% 48% +12.7%
≤30d 124 -24.4% -31.6% 36% 35% -70.1%
≤90d 124 -24.4% -31.6% 36% 35% -70.1%
all 167 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 44% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 44% -11.8%
10% -23.6% 43% -20.3%
15% -31.0% 41% -28.0%
20% -37.8% 40% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,091) neutral
Persistence
early +48% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$870 vs −$733 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$3,954
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses74 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 169
History coverage452d
Avg bet$887
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 73¢ 72¢ $219 $214 −$4 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $206 +$163 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $128 +$83 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $128 +$68 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$62 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$11 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$44 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$37 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$74 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$64 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +128%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 02 $203 −$198 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers May 31 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $105 −$105 -100%
Pirates vs. Giants May 31 $2,584 −$2,584 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley May 31 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 31 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 31 $302 −$302 -100%
Dodgers vs. Red Sox May 31 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers May 31 $1,793 −$1,793 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Tottenham end in a draw? May 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 31 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1PM ET May 31 $946 −$946 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder May 31 $1,397 −$1,397 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Rays vs. Giants May 31 $4,078 −$4,078 -100%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico May 31 $3,507 −$3,507 -100%
Dream vs Aces May 31 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $211 −$211 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $99 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.65 · official $412.65 (match) · 948 history records