Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f74…caf7 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-11%) realized −$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$7
sports 2% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.7% -23.7% 56% 56% -14.8%
≤30d 9 -15.7% -23.7% 56% 56% -14.8%
≤90d 9 -15.7% -23.7% 56% 56% -14.8%
all 9 -15.7% -23.7% 56% 56% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 56% -14.8%
10% -31.0% 44% -23.0%
15% -37.7% 33% -30.4%
20% -43.8% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$23 +52%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$29 -78%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$9 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$41 -63%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$22 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $69 2m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $69 5m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $37 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $65 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.28 · official $67.28 (match) · 19 history records