Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f74…9745 other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,466 (-1%) realized −$1,464 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,206per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days+$41
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$70
politics 41% −$96
sports 7% −$1,319
economics 3% −$6
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 38 +0.6% -9.0% 11% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 98 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 2% -10.5%
all 157 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 10% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 9% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 9% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,530) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$19 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$1,464
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,206
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $359 $358 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $854 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $950 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,842 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $2,732 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,994 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,860 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,477 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $60 +$77 +129%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $4,173 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,026 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $420 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $588 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $3,467 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,016 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $868 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $57 +$55 +97%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $4,861 −$7 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,323 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,449 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $3,133 −$5 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,365 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 3h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $853 5h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $854 7h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 46h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,095 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $829 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $830 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $948 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,191 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 4d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $360 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,088 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,090 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $921 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $922 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,306 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,308 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,405 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,406 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,293 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,295 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,062 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.81 · official $357.81 (match) · 493 history records