Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f77…2b2f other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$171 (+5%) realized +$156 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$16
sports 39% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +18.3% +7.0% 71% 64% -4.5%
≤30d 14 +18.3% +7.0% 71% 64% -4.5%
≤90d 14 +18.3% +7.0% 71% 64% -4.5%
all 14 +18.3% +7.0% 71% 64% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 64% -4.5%
10% -3.2% 57% -13.7%
15% -12.6% 29% -22.0%
20% -21.1% 14% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$100 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 57¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $0 +$1 +267%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $603 +$185 +31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $111 +$88 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$5 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $681 +$38 +6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $580 +$98 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $212 −$211 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $163 +$50 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $131 +$32 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $99 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $149 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 27¢ $0 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $111 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $603 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $719 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $681 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $678 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $580 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $212 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $163 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $163 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $133 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $131 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.34 · official $312.34 (match) · 30 history records