Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f7c…a085 sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$4
politics 20% −$3
other 20% −$4
crypto 9% −$2
economics 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 215 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 200
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 216
History coverage169d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $49 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $50 7d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 19d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 19d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 33d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $39 33d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $44 105d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $44 105d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 105d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 105d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 105d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $42 105d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $45 105d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 105d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $48 105d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $48 105d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $42 105d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $42 105d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $39 105d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $40 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $49 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $49 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 105d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $47 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.36 · official $37.36 (match) · 743 history records