Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6F 0x6f80…334b other 27 markets active 19h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,459 (+14%) realized +$1,398 · open +$61

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%15W / 10L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown53%max

Avg bet$391per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$761now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,128

7 days+$1,204

14 days+$1,293

30 days+$1,293

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+8.8%	-1.6%	64%	64%	+12.3%
≤30d	25	+0.0%	-9.5%	60%	60%	+2.4%
≤90d	25	+0.0%	-9.5%	60%	60%	+2.4%
all	25	+0.0%	-9.5%	60%	60%	+2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	60%	+2.4%
10%	-18.1%	60%	-7.4%
15%	-26.1%	52%	-16.3%
20%	-33.3%	36%	-24.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -17% → late +16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$275 vs −$284 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.46 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$761

Realized+$1,398

Unrealized+$61

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses15 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 27

History coverage12d

Avg bet$391

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown53%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	48¢	61¢	$400	$510	+$110 (+27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	11¢	$300	$251	−$49 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$405	+$322	+79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$509	+$806	+158%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$356	−$350	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$404	+$220	+54%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 22	$402	−$400	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$153	−$153	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$303	+$126	+42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$404	+$211	+52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,111	+$577	+52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$506	+$295	+58%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$460	−$450	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$303	+$120	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$355	+$260	+73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$504	+$206	+41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$355	−$350	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$646	+$272	+42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$459	−$450	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$102	−$6	-6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$254	+$237	+93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$27	−$26	-97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$405	+$240	+59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$353	+$114	+32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$152	−$150	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$503	−$500	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$403	+$123	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$509	18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$356	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$624	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$402	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	27¢	$153	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$406	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$404	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$303	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$308	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$404	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	78¢	$503	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$204	6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$404	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	55¢	$405	6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$303	7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$355	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$918	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$141	8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$355	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$403	9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	13¢	$154	9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	30¢	$96	9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$102	9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	43¢	$305	9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$405	9d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$255	9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$505	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.77 · official $760.77 (match) · 57 history records