Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6F 0x6f83…8568 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$258 (+117%) realized +$258 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip

Net edge+70%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%3W / 15L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$112

7 days+$111

14 days+$257

30 days+$257

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)+70.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+53.6%	+39.0%	12%	12%	+94.1%
≤30d	18	+88.3%	+70.4%	17%	17%	+159.4%
≤90d	18	+88.3%	+70.4%	17%	17%	+159.4%
all	18	+88.3%	+70.4%	17%	17%	+159.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+70.4%	17%	+159.4%
10%	+54.1%	17%	+134.6%
15%	+39.2%	17%	+111.9%
20%	+25.6%	17%	+91.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +184% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +88% · $-wt +184% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +79% → late +97% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$5 · ×22.93 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage

Net worth$34

Realized+$258

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses3 / 15

Open positions6

Markets (closed)18 / 25

History coverage138d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	23¢	22¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3	−$1	-19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$13	−$13	-97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$10	−$4	-34%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?	Jun 15	$10	−$6	-57%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$10	−$4	-36%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$10	−$4	-40%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$10	+$156	+1521%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$31	−$3	-9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$5	+$26	+503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 03	$20	$0	-1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Jun 03	$20	+$147	+733%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	1m
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	4m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	26m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	48m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$0	57m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$1	57m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$8	58m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$1	58m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$1	58m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	39¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	SELL Yes	13¢	$6	16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	18h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?	SELL Yes	4¢	$4	18h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	SELL Yes	15¢	$6	20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	26h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	26h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	38h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?	SELL Yes	12¢	$6	38h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	39h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	40h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	40h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	40h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	40h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.12 · official $39.06 · 49 history records