Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f88…dca5 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 36% −$2
politics 1% +$3
sports 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 25 -4.6% -13.7% 32% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -3.0% -12.3% 37% 3% -9.5%
all 38 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -25.6% 5% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage522d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $272 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 02 $28 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $119 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $43 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Warriors vs. Rockets Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ohio State and Notre Dame combine for 47 or more points? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $28 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $28 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $28 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $18 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $18 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.15 · official $2.66 (match) · 140 history records