Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f8a…5391 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$692 (-11%) realized −$661 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%49W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$181
sports 37% −$346
crypto 18% −$217
world 0% −$30
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 38% -40.5%
≤30d 8 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 38% -40.5%
≤90d 103 -19.7% -27.3% 48% 37% -20.1%
all 103 -19.7% -27.3% 48% 37% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 37% -20.1%
10% -34.3% 28% -27.7%
15% -40.6% 22% -34.7%
20% -46.4% 15% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$29 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$661
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses49 / 54
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage61d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $147 $115 −$31 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $64 −$63 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $101 −$53 -52%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $81 −$49 -61%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $232 −$150 -65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 03 $200 +$6 +3%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $74 +$18 +24%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 02 $194 −$125 -65%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $252 +$74 +30%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 02 $200 +$10 +5%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $20 +$16 +78%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group May 02 $15 +$15 +98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $182 +$30 +16%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $5 +$7 +129%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $10 +$8 +76%
Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega May 01 $20 +$18 +89%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 30 $1 +$4 +388%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 30 $10 +$7 +70%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 30 $10 +$8 +76%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Jiujiang: Sho Shimabukuro vs Keegan Smith Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Mauthausen: Martin Krumich vs Jaime Faria Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 27 $5 +$14 +276%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Apr 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $194 +$70 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $148 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 30¢ $48 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 41d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 45d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 45d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 45d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 45d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 27¢ $82 45d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 74¢ $232 45d
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 97¢ $200 45d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 45d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 45d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 80¢ $74 46d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $68 46d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $194 46d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 46d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 46d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 46d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.16 · official $115.16 (match) · 219 history records