Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6f8b…01aa sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182,506 (-14%) realized −$186,173 · open +$3,667
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%40W / 167L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,467per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$20,227est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$19,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$222,024
other 5% +$70,244
crypto 2% +$18,384
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -90.6% -91.5% 4% 4% -68.5%
≤30d 87 -84.6% -86.1% 6% 6% -67.5%
≤90d 207 -43.3% -48.7% 19% 19% -31.1%
all 207 -43.3% -48.7% 19% 19% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.7% 19% -31.1%
10% -53.6% 19% -37.7%
15% ← realistic here -58.1% 19% -43.7%
20% -62.2% 19% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$7,500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17,419 vs −$6,245 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$19,105
Realized−$186,173
Unrealized+$3,667
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses40 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$20,227
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 133
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$9,467
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 40¢ 50¢ $15,438 $19,105 +$3,667 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-27.5) Jun 17 $5,182 −$5,182 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jun 17 $509 −$509 -100%
Washington Huskies vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 17 $472 −$472 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Jun 17 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Quentin Halys vs Jack Draper Jun 17 $8,860 −$8,860 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
Magic vs. Bucks Jun 17 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Moez Echargui vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricar Jun 17 $12,600 −$12,600 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Jun 17 $2,421 −$2,421 -100%
Warriors vs. Wizards Jun 17 $2,107 −$2,107 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 17 $211 −$211 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $4,996 −$4,996 -100%
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jun 17 $1,092 −$1,092 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes (Featherwei Jun 17 $2,543 −$2,543 -100%
Mexican Open: Rafael Jodar vs Cameron Norrie Jun 17 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $2,499 −$2,499 -100%
Duquesne Dukes vs. VCU Rams Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen Jun 17 $1,495 −$1,495 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Pr Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $3,157 −$3,157 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Jun 17 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Jun 17 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Phil Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Welterweight, Pr Jun 17 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Jun 17 $1,984 −$1,984 -100%
Pune: Ilya Ivashka vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $4,480 −$4,480 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 17 $977 −$977 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 17 $989 −$989 -100%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Jun 17 $2,215 −$2,215 -100%
BYU Cougars vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Jun 17 $2,498 −$2,498 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 17 $825 −$825 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 17 $5,228 −$5,228 -100%
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 17 $624 −$624 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jun 17 $1,929 −$1,929 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C Jun 17 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Jun 17 $5,075 −$5,075 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Australian Open Men's: James Duckworth vs Jannik Sinner Jun 17 $365 −$365 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $2,316 −$2,316 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $78 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $13 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $33 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $36 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $41 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $6 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,104.98 · official $19,104.98 (match) · 3500 history records