Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f90…ed7c politics 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$20
politics 34% −$18
sports 8% +$81
crypto 6% −$2
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 140 +2.5% -7.3% 9% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×14.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage127d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $496 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $251 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $204 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $276 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $437 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $395 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $470 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $273 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 24h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 18d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 20d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 20d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 29d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 33d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $251 33d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.02 · official $42.02 (match) · 462 history records