Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f95…6ebe politics 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%46W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$6
other 31% −$3
crypto 7% −$2
sports 6% −$2
finance 4% −$9
world 4% −$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 93 -0.5% -9.9% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 178 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -10.0%
all 214 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses46 / 168
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)214 / 217
History coverage98d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5AM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 04 $64 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 01 $39 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 40m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 5h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 7h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $6 9h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 12h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 15h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 16h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 16h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 16h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 18h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 18h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 19h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.96 · official $14.96 (match) · 1310 history records