Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f96…f72d crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$122 (+2%) realized +$88 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$697
7 days−$531
14 days−$533
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 43% -22.4%
≤30d 91 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 45% -19.0%
≤90d 91 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 45% -19.0%
all 91 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 45% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 45% -19.0%
10% -27.8% 36% -26.8%
15% -34.8% 31% -33.8%
20% -41.2% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$42 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage14d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 60¢ 78¢ $120 $154 +$34 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $157 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $254 −$21 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $155 −$13 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$43 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$90 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$69 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$40 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$35 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$44 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$19 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$24 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$86 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$58 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$164 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $128 −$118 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$33 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $61 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $62 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $54 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $63 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $77 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.01 · official $157.98 · 258 history records