Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6F 0x6f99…db70 sports 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,530 (-2%) realized −$1,528 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%219W / 314L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$377est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$716
7 days−$709
14 days−$712
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,555
other 34% −$3,962
crypto 7% −$186
world 2% −$130
politics 0% +$303
economics 0% −$188
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +85.4% +67.7% 55% 55% -34.5%
≤30d 94 +12.0% +1.3% 43% 43% -10.5%
≤90d 248 +12.6% +1.8% 40% 40% -18.9%
all 533 +11.5% +0.9% 41% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 40% -13.4%
10% -8.8% 39% -21.7%
15% -17.6% 38% -29.3%
20% -25.6% 35% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$103 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$730
Realized−$1,528
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses219 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$377
Open positions7
Markets (closed)533 / 543
History coverage654d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 64¢ 64¢ $163 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Egypt leading at halftime? No 72¢ 72¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 63¢ 64¢ $121 $121 +$0 (+0%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 16¢ 16¢ $45 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $36 $36 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) IR Iran 85¢ 84¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $607 −$600 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $608 −$16 -3%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $305 +$408 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $170 −$168 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $207 −$186 -90%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$13 +158%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 +$13 +165%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $13 +$8 +65%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$14 +172%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $305 −$300 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $304 +$202 +66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $305 +$426 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 +$14 +197%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $13 +$9 +70%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $9 +$12 +129%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$42 +83%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$12 +124%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $111 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $13 +$8 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$14 +206%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $172 +$137 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 −$47 -46%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $260 −$106 -41%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$10 +86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 +$10 +90%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 +$14 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $405 +$322 +79%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 +$5 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $13 +$8 +60%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$11 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$12 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$15 +226%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 −$9 -4%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 16m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $15 24m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $7 24m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 25m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $31 25m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $27 25m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $27 26m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $29 32m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $7 34m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $15 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $32 35m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $27 36m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $27 36m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $14 46m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $43 47m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $55 47m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $7 56m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $46 56m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $27 57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $27 57m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $14 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $22 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 85¢ $18 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $11 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $22 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $27 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $27 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.97 · official $729.27 (match) · 1232 history records