Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f9a…2a64 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$422 (-7%) realized −$422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$329
sports 35% −$1,093
crypto 22% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.2% +2.4% 48% 43% -19.8%
≤30d 21 +13.2% +2.4% 48% 43% -19.8%
≤90d 21 +13.2% +2.4% 48% 43% -19.8%
all 21 +13.2% +2.4% 48% 43% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 43% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 33% -27.5%
15% -16.3% 24% -34.5%
20% -24.5% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$206 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $164 −$161 -98%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $232 −$68 -29%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 +$132 +131%
Spread: Japan (-5.5) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$84 +287%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,370 −$1,034 -76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,070 −$698 -65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $898 +$177 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $836 +$974 +116%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 −$41 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$19 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$7 +8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $56 −$25 -44%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $69 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $257 −$211 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$143 +137%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $106 +$30 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $106 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $164 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 22¢ $164 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 30¢ $232 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 83¢ $232 1h
Spread: Japan (-5.5) SELL Japan 0¢ $1 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $100 1h
Spread: Japan (-5.5) BUY Japan 2¢ $12 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $688 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $376 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $372 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $713 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $306 10h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $126 10h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $179 10h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,075 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $898 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,810 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $421 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records